Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
